As War Continues, All Eyes Turn to Ankara

As the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran enters its second month, much of the global focus has centered on the fate of Iran’s Islamic Republic. However, a quieter but equally significant shift is unfolding—Turkey’s growing role as a dominant regional power.

For years, Turkey’s rise has been steadily building. Its defense spending has surged dramatically, reaching $32.6 billion in 2025, while its domestic defense industry has transformed into a major global player. What the current conflict has done is accelerate this trajectory by weakening two of Turkey’s primary constraints: Iranian influence and Russian engagement in the region.

A Strategic Opening

Even if Iran survives the war, it is expected to emerge weakened. Its extensive network of regional proxies—long a cornerstone of its power—has already been significantly diminished. Groups like Hezbollah, once heavily funded by Tehran, are now reportedly receiving drastically reduced support, highlighting Iran’s declining ability to project influence.

This shift presents Turkey with a unique opportunity. Unlike Iran, Ankara has maintained relationships with several of these groups. Turkey has openly supported Hamas politically and has seen warming ties with Hezbollah in recent years. The key difference is that these groups have historically answered to Tehran. A weakened Iran could allow Turkey to reposition itself as their primary partner.

Analysts suggest that Turkey may prefer a scenario in which Iran remains intact but diminished—strong enough to prevent regional chaos, yet too weak to challenge Turkish influence.

The Risks of Collapse

A complete collapse of the Iranian regime, however, would introduce new uncertainties. In such a scenario, Turkey could emerge as the only major regional power capable of counterbalancing Israel. Unlike Iran, Turkey benefits from international legitimacy as a NATO member and a G20 economy, giving it a strategic advantage on the global stage.

Still, this outcome carries risks. A prolonged conflict or power vacuum in northwestern Iran could empower Kurdish groups seeking autonomy—an outcome Turkey strongly opposes. Kurdish separatism remains a critical red line for Ankara, and Turkish leadership has made clear it would act decisively to prevent such developments.

A Defense Industry Transformation

Turkey’s ability to capitalize on these opportunities is rooted in its dramatic defense industry expansion. In 2002, the country relied heavily on foreign suppliers for military equipment. Today, it produces the majority of its own hardware and exports billions of dollars in defense products annually.

Companies like Baykar have positioned Turkey as a global leader in drone warfare, supplying advanced systems to over 30 countries. These exports have not only boosted Turkey’s economy but also created strategic partnerships across multiple regions.

Combined with its NATO membership—which cannot easily be revoked—Turkey has insulated itself from the kind of isolation that has long plagued Iran.

Leverage on the Global Stage

Turkey’s strategic position within NATO gives it significant leverage. It hosts key military assets, including Incirlik Air Base, which plays a crucial role in U.S. operations across the Middle East. Ankara has demonstrated a willingness to use this leverage in the past, particularly during periods of tension with Washington.

Recent diplomatic moves further underscore Turkey’s growing influence. The United States has acknowledged Ankara’s role in Syria by appointing a dual ambassador and envoy, while also easing sanctions in the region—decisions that effectively expand Turkey’s operational space.

Syria as a Model

Nowhere is Turkey’s influence more visible than in Syria. Following the departure of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024, Turkey quickly moved to shape the country’s political transition. Backing key factions on the ground, Ankara has established itself as a central power broker in the region.

With tens of thousands of troops still stationed in Syria, Turkey provides military protection, economic support, and diplomatic backing to the emerging government. This has effectively turned Syria into a Turkish sphere of influence.

Expanding Reach Beyond the Middle East

Turkey’s ambitions extend well beyond Syria. It has established military bases in Iraq, expanded its footprint in Africa, and played a decisive role in Libya by deploying proxy forces. These actions reflect a broader strategy of projecting power through both direct military presence and indirect partnerships.

At the ideological level, Turkey has supported political movements aligned with its vision of governance, particularly those connected to the Muslim Brotherhood. This approach contrasts with Iran’s revolutionary model, relying instead on political influence and institutional integration.

A New Regional Reality

Despite comparisons from some officials, Turkey is not simply replacing Iran as a regional power. Its approach is fundamentally different—more integrated into global systems and backed by institutional legitimacy.

However, this does not mean the shift is without consequences. Turkey’s growing influence introduces new complexities and potential instability, particularly given its increasingly assertive foreign policy and evolving relationship with NATO allies.

What is clear is that the balance of power in the Middle East is changing. Turkey is no longer a secondary player but a central force shaping the region’s future.

And as the conflict continues, one question looms large: is the international community prepared for a Middle East where Turkey—not Iran—sets the tone?