The 2026 Oscar Predictions

The Academy Awards take place today. Hollywood prepares for its biggest night of the year, and this time, we face a truly chaotic race. We have twenty-four categories on the ballot, including the brand-new award for Best Casting. I left behind all the trivial internet gossip to focus strictly on the movies.

Usually, you can spot the guaranteed winners from a mile away. Not this year. This feels like the most wide-open Oscar race in recent memory. I spent hours analyzing the nominees, and I finally locked in my choices for who I think will win, who I would personally vote for, and the hidden upsets you need to watch out for.

The Heavyweights: Picture and Director

The battle for Best Picture comes down to an absolute coin flip. One Battle After Another stands as my personal favorite movie of the year. I believe it will ultimately take home the top prize. However, Sinners carries massive momentum right now. Any other movie winning would shock me completely.

For Best Director, I predict Paul Thomas Anderson will finally win his long-overdue Oscar for One Battle After Another. He directed a technical and emotional masterpiece. But if the Academy swings hard for Sinners, Ryan Coogler holds a very legitimate chance to steal this award.

The Acting Showdowns

The acting categories provide genuine suspense this year. Three of the four races remain entirely unpredictable.

The Best Actor race generates massive daily headlines. Every single nominee holds a realistic chance of winning. I would personally vote for Ethan Hawke's incredible work in Blue Moon. Yet, the momentum heavily favors Michael B. Jordan right now. He recently won the major guild award, and that usually signals an Oscar victory. You cannot count out Timothée Chalamet as a potential spoiler, but Jordan feels like the safest bet.

Best Actress offers the only true certainty of the night. Jessie Buckley dominates this category. She swept every major precursor award leading up to the ceremony. You can never guarantee an Oscar win, but her victory feels like an absolute lock.

The supporting races look incredibly messy. For Best Supporting Actor, Sean Penn leads the pack after a strong showing at the BAFTAs. Still, Delroy Lindo waits in the wings as a highly respected veteran who could easily pull off an upset. The Best Supporting Actress race features a tight battle between Wunmi Mosaku, Teyana Taylor, and Amy Madigan. Madigan delivered an entirely unique performance last year, so I predict she will take home the statue.

The Writing and Craft Awards

Movies do not exist without writers. One Battle After Another should win Best Adapted Screenplay, even though Bugonia offers a wildly creative adaptation. In the Best Original Screenplay category, Ryan Coogler holds a strong grip on the prize for Sinners.

The technical categories feature a mix of guaranteed wins and tight races. Avatar: Fire and Ash will almost certainly win Best Visual Effects. Frankenstein should dominate the visual design awards, picking up easy wins for both Best Production Design and Best Costume Design. It also leads the race for Best Makeup and Hairstyling.

Best Cinematography presents a historic opportunity. I predict Sinners will win, allowing Autumn Durald Arkapaw to make Academy history. For Best Editing, One Battle After Another edges out the competition. Best Sound usually goes to the loudest movie, so I expect the racing film F1 to roar past the finish line.

This year introduces the Best Casting category. I expect Francine Maisler to win for Sinners. She holds a legendary resume filled with massive hits, and the Academy will likely use this moment to reward her entire brilliant career.

Music, Features, and Shorts

Ludwig Göransson looks ready to claim his third Academy Award for his amazing original score in Sinners. For Best Original Song, "Golden" from K-pop Demon Hunters deserves the win. It is not just a catchy pop track; it serves as the literal plot device that saves the world in the film.

K-pop Demon Hunters will likely return to the stage to claim Best Animated Feature. The documentary race belongs to The Perfect Neighbor. This terrifying film uses raw body cam and found footage to let a horrific story unfold without any narration. For Best International Feature, Sentimental Value boasts heavy support across multiple Academy branches. It should comfortably win the prize.

Finally, we reach the short films. These unpredictable categories destroy prediction brackets every year. Based on emotional resonance, A Friend of Dorothy should take Best Live-Action Short. The devastating school shooting documentary All the Empty Rooms feels like a sure bet for Best Documentary Short. Butterfly, a beautifully animated true story about a Holocaust survivor, will likely win Best Animated Short.

When the final envelope closes, I project a massive tie at the top. One Battle After Another and Sinners should both walk away with five Oscars. Frankenstein follows closely with three. Get ready for a thrilling night of television. We will watch real drama unfold right up until the very last award.